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The International Chess game that is going on in and around the Straight of Hormuz has taken a few more dramatic turns over the past 24-48 hours.

Yesterday I posted on the disposition of the Fleets of the main players.

The US 5th Fleet Carrier USS CVN-74 John Stennis and her associated Battle Group is now in or very close to the Straights of Hormuz, ignoring the warnings given last week by the head of the Iranian Navy for the US ships to back off.

Close by, both in the Gulf of Oman and on patrol in the Arabian Sea is the Royal Navy, with the news that HMS Daring has been dispatched to join the ships already there. As part of the same operational group under the command of the EU is a range of German, Dutch, Italian and French warships stretching from the Gulf of Oman to the Gulf of Aden and off the Somalian coast as part of the anti piracy patrols.

In the Mediterranean Sea, a Russian Battle group led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov which carries 47 warplanes (mostly Su-33) and 10 helicopters,




accompanied by the guided missile destroyer Admiral Chabanenko have arrived at the Russian Naval Base in the Syrian port of Tartus.



Whilst many pundits are saying that this is in support of President Assad, I tend to feel that it is the placing of another chess piece on the ‘wrong’ side of Israel in support of the Iranian regime. It must be remembered that the Iranian navy sent their own ships, the Alvand – thought to be a British-built Vosper Mark 5 class frigate – and a supply vessel, the Kharg, also British-built, to Tartus in February last year. (I have not seen any reports anywhere that they returned).

This would most definitely place these Russian ships within easy striking distance of Israel should Russia decide to support Iran in any armed conflict that may erupt.

As if to provoke the situation even further, less than a week after the ending of Iranian Navy exercises lasting 10 days, Iran is planning new military exercises near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, this time using the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s naval branch. The Fars news agency last Thursday quoted the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s naval commander, Adm. Ali Fadavi, as saying that the upcoming exercise would be the seventh staging of an annual drill called "The Great Prophet."

Against this backdrop, planned for the same time is a joint US/Israeli exercise. The Jerusalem Post quotes US Commander Lt.-Gen Frank Gorenc as saying the drill is not just an “exercise” but also a “deployment” that will involve “several thousand American soldiers” heading to Israel. Additionally, new command posts will be established by American forces in Israel and that country’s own IDF army will begin working from a base in Germany.

U.S. European Command (EUCOM) has already deployed to Israel a high-powered X-band radar and the supporting people and equipment needed for coordinated defence against Iranian missile attack, marking the first permanent U.S. military presence on Israeli soil, which was put in place last September.

Under the Austere Challenge 12 drill scheduled for an undisclosed time during the next few weeks, the Israeli military will together with America host the largest-ever joint missile drill by the two countries. Following the installation of American troops near Iran’s neighbouring Strait of Hormuz and the reinforcing of nearby nations with US weapons, Tehran authorities are considering this not a test but the start of something much bigger.

In the testing, America’s Theater High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD, missile system will be operating alongside its ship-based Aegis system and Israel’s own program to work with Arrow, Patriot and Iron Drone missiles.

America previously equipping Saudi Arabia with nearly $30 billion F-15 of war planes, and the United Arab Emirates with advanced “bunker buster” bombs and other weaponry to wreck any chance of an Iranian nuclear weapon program from close by, the US will now have added forces on the ready in Israel and Germany.

And turning the screw and raising the ante even more, Iran has announced the sentencing of a former U.S. Marine to death on charges of spying for the CIA, Iranian state media reported Monday.

Iran‘s Revolutionary Court found 28-year-old Amir Hekmati "Corrupt on Earth," said the Fars news agency, and sentenced him to death "for cooperating with the hostile country . . . and spying for the CIA." Under Iranian law, Hekmati has 20 days to appeal.

His trial and death sentence came as Iran announced that it had enriched uranium at an underground facility, which was confirmed by the IAEA.

"The IAEA can confirm that Iran has started the production of uranium enriched up to 20 percent using IR-1 centrifuges in the Fordo Fuel Enrichment Plant," the agency said in a statement. However, IAEA Spokeswoman Gill Tudor said that all nuclear materials and operations in the Fordo facility are “under the Agency’s containment and surveillance."

Is this the tipping point that the US has been waiting for? We will probably never know what this spat is really about, oil, ideology or just payback time for the US Embassy hostage crisis and failed rescue attempt during Carter’s time.

Although as ZeroHedge commented, If at this point anyone is missing the parallels to 2003, we suggest getting bigger glasses. Our prediction is that within 2 years Ahmedinejad will be found by the US Army deep in some foxhole, to make the Iraq replica complete.

Our only hope is that by then the entire Middle East is not covered in radioactive glass.




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